Why issue extended-range forecasts for seasonal hurricane activity?

The Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins. People are curious to know how active this year is likely to be, particularly if you can show hindcast skill improvement over climatology during many past years.
Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s
hurricane activity in early April. There is, however, much curiosity as to how global
ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming season. Our new early April statistical forecast methodology shows strong evidence over 58 past years that significant improvement over climatology can be attained. We would never issue a seasonal hurricane forecast unless we had a statistical model developed over a long hindcast period which showed significant skill over climatology.
We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring
attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds
are for an active or inactive season. One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded
comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful
information about similar trends in future seasons. This is not always true for individual seasons. It is also important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.