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Latest News |
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Colorado State Expects Another Active Hurricane Season in 2011
April 6, 2011
Information obtained through March 2011 indicates that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2011 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 16 named storms (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2011 to be approximately 175 percent of the long-term average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early December, due to anomalous warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and cooling in the tropical Atlantic.
This forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We expect current La Niña conditions to transition to near-neutral conditions during the heart of the hurricane season. Overall, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season.
Click here for the full report.
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Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
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Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate |
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
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Red names are active storms, Blue names are retired storms, and Black names have yet to form. |
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Orlando Tropical Threat Level |
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October 30, 2011
With the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season approaching the end (Nov 30 officially) things in the tropical Atlantic are quiet.
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THERE ARE NO ACTIVE STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME.
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THERE ARE NO DEPRESSIONS OR DISTURBANCES IN THE ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME.
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The figure above shows the zones of origin and tracks for the month of Novembe of the hurricane season. These figures only depict average conditions. Hurricanes can originate in different locations and travel much different paths from the average. Nonetheless, having a sense of the general pattern can give you a better picture of the average hurricane season for your area. |
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The above map shows the paths of known November tropical storms and hurricanes which have come within 100 miles of Orlando in the last 157 years. |
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The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season. |
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